6 Aug · 12:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1562
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Rek
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1562
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak
Fair odds · Rek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+0
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.