6 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1451
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chlad
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1411
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chvojka🌟Chlad rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (31)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.