6 Aug · 14:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1552
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lovl
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1559
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H7-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.