6 Aug · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1604
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pribyl
ELO 1591
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.