6 Aug · 14:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1562
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1542
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H21-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.