6 Aug · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1507
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1540
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (54)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H22-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.