6 Aug · 12:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1604
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pawlik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1554
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 63% (49)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.