6 Aug · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1533
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rek
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1562
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Osmera
Fair odds · Rek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.