6 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1542
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rek
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1562
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Knazik
Fair odds · Rek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.