6 Aug · 12:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1533
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Knazik
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1542
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Osmera🌟Knazik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (92)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H21-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.