6 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1687
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Benak
JB
🇨🇿Jan Benak
ELO 1692
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benak🌟Benak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (23)
Fair odds · Benak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H12-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.