6 Aug · 14:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1620
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Prochazka
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1630
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 64% (76)
Fair odds · Prochazka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.