6 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1451
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1498
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Chlad covers set handicap as underdog 64% (39)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.