6 Aug · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1533
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1562
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H8-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.