6 Aug · 17:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1519
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fitl
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1559
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.