6 Aug · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇨🇿Simon Matousch
ELO 1434
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Juhasz
MJ
🇨🇿Martin Juhasz
ELO 1517
FormWWWLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matousch🌟Juhasz goes over total as favourite 71% (34)
Fair odds · Juhasz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)