6 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cesak
ELO 1564
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cesak
MJ
🇨🇿Martin Juhasz
ELO 1528
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Juhasz🌟Juhasz covers set handicap as underdog 81% (26)
Fair odds · Cesak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~84 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.