6 Aug · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1592
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kowal
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1543
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zaskodny🌟Zaskodny covers set handicap as underdog 63% (51)
Fair odds · Kowal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.