6 Aug · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1513
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Flesar
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1470
FormWWWWW
54%
46%
🌟Kabelka covers set handicap as underdog 80% (15)
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.