6 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1514
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Holub
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1528
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Holub stays under total as favourite 64% (14)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.