6 Aug · 21:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1484
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Barsa
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Barsa
ELO 1547
FormWWWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Barsa
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H9-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-6)