6 Aug · 22:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JC
🇨🇿Jean-Baptiste Cousin
ELO 1450
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cousin
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1439
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Cousin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H27-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.