6 Aug · 21:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1549
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mrowetz
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1563
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 71% (49)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.