6 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1513
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sokol
MS
🇨🇿Michal Sokol
ELO 1518
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Flesar stays under total as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Sokol
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.