7 Aug · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1546
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1537
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 74% (34)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~81 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.