7 Aug · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1460
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1530
FormLWWWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 75% (55)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H45-43
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-43)