7 Aug · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1460
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sturma
OV
🇨🇿Oldrich Vaclahovsky
ELO 1423
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vaclahovsky🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (52)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.