7 Aug · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1546
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1591
FormLLLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H15-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.