7 Aug · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1553
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vonasek
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1540
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 68% (111)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H50-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.