7 Aug · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1550
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1553
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vonasek🌟Sulc covers set handicap as underdog 64% (102)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H40-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.