7 Aug · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1488
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1553
FormLWWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H35-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-20)