7 Aug · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1690
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kocab
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1639
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 65% (78)
Fair odds · Kocab
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H2-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.