7 Aug · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1639
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benak
JB
🇨🇿Jan Benak
ELO 1672
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🌟Benak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (26)
Fair odds · Benak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H5-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.