7 Aug · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jakub Komorowicz
ELO 1458
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Arkadiusz
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1563
FormLWWLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Arkadiusz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+105
H2H42-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-25)