7 Aug · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FC
🇨🇿Filip Cernota
ELO 1676
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Cernota
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1672
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Stusek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (97)
Fair odds · Cernota
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H71-71
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.