7 Aug · 17:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1627
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1717
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H28-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-19)