7 Aug · 20:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1498
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vidourek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1514
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Vidourek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.