7 Aug · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇨🇿Filip Sikora
ELO 1619
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sikora
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vicherek
ELO 1607
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vicherek🌟Vicherek covers set handicap as underdog 77% (39)
Fair odds · Sikora
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.