7 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1431
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sebl
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1439
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 29% · 3.44· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H7-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.