7 Aug · 18:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1499
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Flesar
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1509
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.