7 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PP
🇨🇿Petr Pesout
ELO 1453
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pesout
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Pros
ELO 1437
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pesout
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H9-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.