7 Aug · 16:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1509
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Flesar
PP
🇨🇿Petr Pesout
ELO 1453
FormWLLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H15-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-4)