7 Aug · 22:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1431
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rein
PK
🇨🇿Petr Kubat
ELO 1379
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
🌟Kubat covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Rein
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.