8 Aug · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1541
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ruzicka
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1510
FormWLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Ruzicka stays under total as favourite 64% (28)
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.