8 Aug · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1481
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hons
PP
🇨🇿Petr Pesout
ELO 1461
FormWWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Hons covers set handicap as favourite 63% (19)
Fair odds · Hons
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.