8 Aug · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1510
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Martin
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1481
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Martin
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.