8 Aug · 14:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1460
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Beran
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1545
FormWLWWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Beran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (29)
Fair odds · Beran
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)