8 Aug · 13:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1629
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Duch
WM
🇨🇿Wieslaw Mazurek
ELO 1569
FormWWWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Duch
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)