8 Aug · 17:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1455
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1553
FormWWWLW
42%
58%
🌟Sobota covers set handicap as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+98
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+98)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)