8 Aug · 18:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1499
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1455
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Sobota covers set handicap as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.